Gold markets initially rallied to start the week, but ran into trouble at the 50 hour EMA, one of my favorite indicators. The slope of the moving average is lower, and it certainly looks as if the $1245 level is offering short-term resistance. However, I do see that there is a certain amount of demand near the $1238 level, so while I do think that we continue to go a bit lower, I think that it is a slow descent that we are probably going to see.
Keep in mind that the US dollar has its part to play, so if it starts to strengthen, that will put bearish pressure on gold as well. I believe that the currency markets will continue to be very noisy, and with interest rates rising in the United States, it’s very likely that Gold will continue to struggle to make longer-term gains, at least at the moment. I believe that we will eventually see a turnaround, but I think it’s probably closer to the $1200 level where the longer-term players come into put money to work.
Market participants continue to be very erratic, because there are a lot of different moving pieces out there that can move precious metals in the greenback, not the least of which would be trade tensions, and of course the Brexit. Ultimately, I think that gold will find value hunters, but it’s probably not in this neighborhood quite yet. I believe that the $1250 level above would be resistance as well.