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AUD/USD Catches A Lift
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AUD/USD Catches A Lift But Gives It Back As Aussie Confidence Survey Misses The Mark


  • Business conditions survey shows a deterioration in confidence within the Aussie business economy.
  • China-US trade tension could still threaten market sentiment if China chooses to play ball.

The AUD/USD lifted in early Tokyo markets as markets swung to the risk-on side, but bulls are being challenged by misses for confidence and business conditions indicators, and the pair is hesitating and showing weakness at the 0.7700 handle.

National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence survey printed a dismal 7, a clear undershoot of the expected 12, and a further contraction from the previous reading of 9, while the NAB Business Conditions survey likewise missed expectations, printing at 14 versus the expected 17, and even further below the previous 21.

NAB business conditions index drops in March

Money Supply figures for China are expected soon at 02:00 GMT, but knock-on effect should be minimal for the Aussie as traders focus on China’s President, Xi Jinping, who is speaking today at the Boao Forum, is expected to give China’s official reaction to the latest round in the tariff face-off between China and the US. Aussie traders will also be awaiting talking points from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) head, Philip Lowe, who is slated to speak at 05:00 GMT early Wednesday. Given the dovish tone the RBA hit at their last rate decision, traders will be looking for insights from Lowe as to what the central bank’s expectations are going forward.

AUD/USD Levels to watch

The pair is still remaining trapped within yesterday’s range, “the recovery has left the pair inside the usual range, and the 4 hours chart is once again offering a neutral technical stance, as indicators continue hovering around their mid-lines, while the price moves back and forth around a flat 20 SMA. The key resistance is the 0.7740 region, the 61.8% retracement of the December/January rally, as only above it the upside will gain some adepts.”

Support levels: 0.7640  0.7590 0.7550

Resistance levels: 0.7710 0.7740 0.7785

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