Wednesday, January 17, 2018
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Forex Today: Aussie – a big mover in Asia, a light calendar ahead
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An eventless Asian session kicked-off yet another holiday-thinned week, as slowing volumes and irregular volatility persisted heading into the New Year break. There were no major macro news reported, excepted for the Chinese industrial profits and China’s Beige Book Survey, which had little impact on the fx space.

The Aussie emerged the top performer, gaining the most amid a broadly subdued USD and the recent strength in commodities’ prices. The Kiwi also followed suit while the Yen traded on the back foot, as yesterday’s comments from BOJ Kuroda offset a string of upbeat Japanese economic data.

Among other related markets, the Asian stocks traded mostly mixed, while gold prices hold near 3-week tops of $ 1288.40. WTI eased-off multi-year tops to trade below the $ 60 mark.

Main topics in Asia

BoJ’s Kuroda: Will patiently maintain powerful monetary easing

Reuters came out with the latest comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda, delivered yesterday at the Keindanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

Gold reaches 3-week high amid thin trading

Gold has built on recent gains, currently trading at $1,282.00, following a resurgence in demand amid thin liquidity conditions.

China’s November industrial profit growth slowest since April

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on its website on Wednesday, the country’s profits for industrial firms rose at a sharply slower pace last month, in response to weaker demand and price pressures.

China Q4 economic trends point to slowdown in 2018 – China Beige Book survey

Reuters reports the key highlights from the quarterly survey of thousands of Chinese firms conducted by China Beige Book International (CBB) on Wednesday.

Key Focus ahead

The EUR calendar remains absolutely dry, except for the UK high street lending data, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, and Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report. Hence, all eyes remain on the US CB consumer confidence and pending home sales data for near-term trading opportunities.

EUR/USD: Consolidation near mid-1.18s to extend ahead of US data

The EUR/USD pair continued to find support near 1.1850 levels amid thin liquidity conditions, now looking to retain the bids as attention turns towards the key US datasets due on the cards later today.

GBP/USD to stay below 1.3400 amid thin markets

The GBP/USD pair witnessed some volatility in the Asian trades amid the withdraw in liquidity, although traded well within the familiar 30-pips range below 1.34 handle.

UK: Will a two or three year transition period be long enough? – ING

A big fear of Brexit-supporting ministers is that the transition period could lead to an indefinite period where the UK is neither in nor out of the EU, according to analysts at ING.

Japan: Main items of interest for 2018 – Nomura

According to Nomura’s Economics Team, in the early stages of 2018, the focus will be on BOJ policy, with no changes in the main scenario expected, adding that upside risks associated with spring labor negotiations and growth strategies exist.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
TUESDAY, DEC 26
11:30
 TRY Capacity Utilization
79.0%
79.9%
14:00
 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)
6.4%
6.3%
6.2%
15:00
 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
20
22
30
15:30
 USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
29.7
20.0
19.4
16:30
 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
1.53%
1.48%
16:30
 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
1.445%
1.355%
16:30
 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
1.245%
1.240%
21:00
 KRW Consumer Sentiment Index
111.0
112.3
WEDNESDAY, DEC 27
24h
 EUR Bank holiday
24h
 EUR St Stephens Day
05:00
 JPY Housing Starts (YoY)
-2.5%
-4.8%
05:00
 JPY Construction Orders (YoY)
6.7%
05:00
 JPY Annualized Housing Starts
-0.933M
07:00
 EUR Industrial Confidence
14
07:00
 EUR Consumer Confidence
23
07:00
 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
1.54
08:00
 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
0.6%
-0.1%
09:00
 CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations
40.7
09:30
 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
40.472K
40.488K
12:30
 BRL Nominal Budget Balance
-30.494B
12:30
 BRL Primary Budget Surplus
4.758B
13:55
 USD Redbook index (MoM)
-0.4%
13:55
 USD Redbook index (YoY)
4.4%
14:00
 MXN Trade Balance, $
$-2.066B
14:00
 MXN Trade Balance s/a, $
$-1.537B
15:00
 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)
-0.5%
3.5%
15:00
 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)
1.2%
18:00
 USD 5-Year Note Auction
2.066%
19:00
 ARS Trade Balance (MoM)
$955M
21:00
 KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI
84
21:30
 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
-5.222M
23:50
 JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
23:50
 JPY Industrial Production (MoM)
0.5%
0.5%
23:50
 JPY Industrial Production (YoY)
6.0%
5.9%
23:50
 JPY Foreign bond investment
¥51B
23:50
 JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks
¥-622.5B
23:50
 JPY Retail Trade (YoY)
1.2%
-0.2%
23:50
 JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)
0%
0%
23:50
 JPY Large Retailer’s Sales
-0.6%
-0.7%
THURSDAY, DEC 28
06:00
 ZAR Private Sector Credit
5.43%
06:00
 ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)
5.01%
06:00
 NOK Retail Sales
-0.2%
07:00
 TRY Economic confidence index
97.9
07:00
 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)
2.5%
07:00
 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)
0.1%
08:30
 SEK Trade Balance (MoM)
-3.1B
09:00
 EUR Economic Bulletin
n/a
 EUR 10-y Bond Auction
1.73%
n/a
 EUR 5-y Bond Auction
0.58%
09:30
 EUR Consumer Confidence
2.3
09:30
 EUR Business Confidence
2.1
11:00
 BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M
0.52%
12:30
 USD Goods Trade Balance
$-68.3B
13:00
 ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)
4.4%
n/a
 RUB Central Bank Reserves $
$430.3B
13:30
 USD Initial Jobless Claims
240K
245K
13:30
 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.900M
1.932M
13:30
 USD Wholesale Inventories
-0.4%
14:45
 USD Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index
62.5
63.9
15:00
 COP National Jobless Rate
8.6%
15:30
 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change
-102B
-182B
16:00
 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
-5.504M
-6.495M
18:00
 USD 7-Year Note Auction
2.23%
23:00
 KRW Industrial Output (YoY)
-5.9%
23:00
 KRW Service Sector Output
-1.7%
23:00
 KRW Industrial Output Growth
-1.1%
FRIDAY, DEC 29
00:01
 EUR Consumer Confidence
00:01
 EUR Consumer Confidence
104.8
00:30
 AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)
5.3%
00:30
 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)
0.4%
07:00
 TRY Trade Balance
-7.32B
08:00
 EUR HICP (YoY)
1.5%
1.8%
08:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)
0.3%
08:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
1.7%
09:00
 EUR Unemployment
11.1%
09:00
 EUR Current Account Balance
€2.36B
09:00
 EUR Private loans (YoY)
2.7%
09:00
 EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)
5.1%
09:00
 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)
4.8%
5.0%
10:00
 EUR Retail Sales (YoY)
-0.8%
10:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
3.2%
10:00
 INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR
5,253.21B
11:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)
2%
11:00
 EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)
0.3%
11:00
 BRL Unemployment Rate
12.2%
11:30
 INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)
4.7%
11:30
 INR FX Reserves, USD
$401.39B
12:00
 CLP Unemployment rate
6.7%
12:00
 CLP Industrial Production (YoY)
0.6%
12:00
 ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)
4.56B
13:00
 EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
0.6%
0.3%
13:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)
0.5%
0.3%
13:00
 EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
1.4%
1.8%
13:00
 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)
1.5%
1.8%
13:00
 PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2.5%
13:00
 PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)
0.5%
18:00
 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
747
20:30
 USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
584.9K
601.8K
20:30
 USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
$101.9K
$113.8K
20:30
 USD CFTC USD NC net positions
$92.4K
$83.2K
20:30
 GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
£27.4K
£20.4K
20:30
 JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
¥-103.0K
¥-114.4K
20:30
 EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
€83.1K
€86.2K
20:30
 AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
$-49.0K
$-12.7K
21:00
 MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos
45.32B
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