Saturday, March 17, 2018
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GBP/USD hoping to hold onto 1.39 ahead of EU CPI, US GDP
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  • The GBP/USD will see volatility from high-impact EU data before NY session.
  • Brexit jitters ahead of PM’s Friday speech hobbling Sterling.

The GBP/USD pair is down slightly in the Asia session, trying to hang on to the 1.3900 handle with London just around the corner.

The Sterling fell against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s trading, spurred on by Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s surprisingly bullish take on the US economy. Some of that Dollar long bias has spilled over into today’s markets, and there’s little change expected in the GBP’s fundamental behaviour, at least until Theresa May’s Brexit-focused speech on Friday.

Prime Minister May will be outlining her vision of what the post-Brexit landscape will look like after next March in her speech scheduled for Friday. PM May is currently embattled within her own ruling Conservative party at the moment, with hardline Brexiteers in a furor over her concessions to European Union (EU) leaders in Brussels regarding Brexit conditions. Theresa May is walking a fine line between facing a rough, cold ejection from the EU if Brexit talks don’t go smoothly and the ire of her Conservative peers who claim she is sacrificing British sovereignty while acquiescing to Brussels’ demands.

Wednesday does not promise quiet conditions, however: the morning will see a slew of data from the EU with notable data points coming from Germany, with the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey early on at 07:00 GMT, followed by the German Unemployment Change at 09:00, and an auction of German10-year bonds will cap off the procession, with the biggest punch saved for last: Eurozone CPI figures will be dropping at 10:00. The US session will also get hit with Annualized GDP buddied up with Core Personal Consumption Expenditure at 13:30, and Greenback longs will be hoping for some good news in order to kick off another round of Dollar buying.

GBP/USD Technicals

The pair is trading into heavy support from the 34 EMA on Daily candles, while H4 charts show the GBP/USD trading to the downside of a sideways triangle, though the break could prove to be a false signal if the Dollar reverses direction in the upcoming session; support is currently priced in from 1.3855 with 1.3800 just below, while resistance sits at 1.4070 and 1.4112.

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