Saturday, March 17, 2018
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Market Morning Briefing: The Dollar Index Tested Resistance On Daily Candles Near 90.1-90.2 Last Week
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Dow (25309.99, +1.39%) is trading just below interim resistance near 25500. A break above 25500, if seen could take it higher towards 26000 else a fall back towards 24400 or lower is possible.

Dax (12483.79, +0.18%) is trying to move up gradually towards 12600 resistance which is likely to hold and push the index back towards 12400.

Levels near 106.50 is important on the Japanese Yen and while that holds, the Nikkei (22071.52, +0.82%) is likely to move up in the near term
towards 22500 levels. If the Japanese Yen sees further strength in the next few sessions, rise in Nikkei could be limited on the upside. Immediate target would be 22500 in the coming sessions.

3325-3350 could be an immediate resistance for Shanghai (3302.41, +0.41%) and while that holds, the index is likely to come off towards 3300 or lower again by end of the week of early next week.

Nifty (10491.05, +1.04%) and Sensex (34142.15, +0.95%) have risen from current support level as visible on the daily candles and while that holds, the indices may move up some more this week towards 10620 and 34500-34750 respectively. Immediate view is bullish.


WTI (63.84) and Brent (67.50) have risen from previous levels. WTI has broken above immediate resistance near 63 and while the rise continues, WTI may move up towards 65. Brent on the other hand, is likely to test 68 on the upside, break of which can lead to further rise towards 69-70 in the medium term.

Gold (1337) is holding above support near 1320 and while that holds, the price may move up towards 1350/60 again in the coming sessions. Near term looks bullish.

Copper (3.2170) is almost stable without any major movement. It is likely to move up to 3.15-3.30 levels in the near term.


The Dollar Index (89.722) tested resistance on daily candles near 90.1-90.2 last week and if the ranging movement of the last 3 weeks continues, it is likely to dip this week towards support near 88.25 on the daily candles.

Euro (1.2318) has also been ranging for the last 3 weeks in the broad 1.22-1.255 zone and if the ranging continues this week, we could see another test of 1.25 sometime late in the week.

The Dollar-Yen (106.51) has some support near 106.25-106.5 on the 3 day line chart and the weekly candles. If it breaks this support, it could dip further to test 105.5 on weekly line chart which is a crucial support level (and had held last week).

The Euro-Yen (131.17) could find some support on daily candles near 131 in the near term. The downside target of 105.5 for Dollar Yen and the upside target of 1.25 for the Euro this week gives the probable target for Euro Yen as 131.87.

Pound (1.4008) could test resistance near 1.405-1.408 on daily candles in the next couple of sessions and dip from there.

Dollar-Rupee (64.735): Support likely at 64.60. If breached, see 64.45-30. Might go back up towards 64.80-90.


US 10 Year Yield (2.8532), US 30 year Yield (3.1448), US 5 year yield (2.6015), US 2 year yield (2.23) : As predicted last Friday, the 10 Yr yield has indeed come back below 2.9% again and the Feb ranging between 2.85% and 2.95% continues. Similarly, the other yields have also dipped slightly and have come nearer to their long term resistance levels.As mentioned last week, a test of 3% for the 10 Year yield still looks to be few weeks away.

(Long term resistance levels for the 4 yields earlier mentioned are as follows: 2.85-2.90, 3.20, 2.7 and 2.2 respectively – we have been expecting these levels to hold in this month.)

The German-US 10 Yr yield spread (-2.2) is near support and could see a bounce in this week / next week. Note that the German 10 Yr yield (0.65%) has dipped below support near 0.7% and hence a bounce in the German-US yield spread could be led by a further dip in US 10 Yr yield.

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