Saturday, March 17, 2018
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Market Morning Briefing: The Dollar-Yen Saw A Low Of 105.55
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Dow (25219.38,+0.08%) could move up towards 26000-26500 on a break above interim resistance near 25500. Medium term looks bullish.

Dax (12385.60, -0.53%) has resistance near 12600 and while the index trades below 12600, near to medium term looks bearish. Trade within 12600-12300 region looks likely in the near term.

Nikkei (21884.21, -1.20%) is down slightly after trying to move up yesterday. A break above 22200-22400 could take it higher towards 22800 levels else a fall back to 21400 or lower is possible in the coming sessions.

The resistance near 10680 on Nifty (10378.40, -1.58%) seems to be holding well. Currently trading near the 10260-10320 support region, if the index fails to bounce back immediately, it could be vulnerable to a further fall towards 10080 in the next few sessions. Else a bounce, if seen could take it higher towards 10680 levels again.

It would be important to see if Sensex (33774.66, -1.52%) breaks below 33500 in the coming sessions or attempts a bounce back towards 35000 or higher.


Overall the metals are trading lower today while the crude prices have inched up a bit.

WTI (62.17) may test decent resistance near current levels and could possible again come off towards 62-61 in the next few sessions, A break above 63 if seen would turn bullish for the medium term.

Brent (65.38) on the other hand needs to move above 66 to rise further in the near term. Else a pause near current levels could keep prices stable for now.

Gold (1343.50) saw a rejection from 1365-1367 levels and while that holds, a test of lower levels of 1340-1330 looks likely. Near term looks bearish.

Copper (3.1950) has come off from just below important resistance near 3.30 as seen on the 3-day charts. The price may head towards 3.15- 3.10 in the near term. Near term looks bearish.


Support near 88.5 on daily candles has held well for the Dollar Index (89.33) and it is now seeing a bounce towards 90. It should test important resistance just above 90 on the weekly candles this week (daily candles also show resistance near 90).

As per expectations, Euro (1.2385) didn’t rise beyond 1.2556 (close to its previous high at 1.2537) and is now coming off towards support near 1.235 on the daily candles, which it might test in the next couple of sessions. Lower support is seen near 1.23 on the weekly candles, which could be tested later this week.

The Dollar-Yen (106.72) saw a low of 105.55 (support on daily candles – earlier mentioned as 106) from where it is now bouncing. Its next target could be 107.0-107.5 which is seen as resistance on the daily and 3 day candles.

The Euro-Yen (132.17) is again testing crucial support near 132 on the 3 day candles. For the Euro Yen to break this crucial support, the Euro should test 1.23 later this week while the Dollar Yen stays below 107.5, which is a possibility.

Pound (1.3975), as per our expectation, is dipping from resistance on 3 day candles and 3 day line chart near 1.42-1.43 and might now test immediate support near 1.39 on the daily candles soon. Test of lower support near 1.38 on daily and 3 day candles is also likely this week.

Dollar-Rupee (64.215) may see 64.30-35 this week and maybe higher by the end of the month.


US 10 Year Yield (2.8968), US 30 year Yield (3.1431), US 5 year yield (2.6582), US 2 year yield (2.222) : The 2 Year Yield is slightly above our earlier mentioned long term resistance level near 2.2%. It will be important to see if it goes up further since a further upmove could pull up the other yields beyond their long term resistances as well. However, our preference still remains for a dip in the 2 year yield in the next couple of days below 2.2%.
(Long term resistance levels for the 4 yields earlier mentioned are as follows: 2.85-2.90, 3.20, 2.7 and 2.2 respectively – we have been expecting these levels to hold in this month.)

The 10-5 Year Spread (0.25) is testing the 21 day moving average on the short term chart and should move up in the next few sessions, indicating a likely dip for the 5 year yield from 2.65%.

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