The Australian dollar rallied to start the week, reaching towards the 0.75 level which of course is always going to be psychologically important. Beyond that, there is structural support and resistance at that level, so I think that it’s likely that we will continue to see this area cause a bit of a reaction.
The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the day on Monday as traders came back from the weekend, but the 0.75 level continues to be major resistance. I think it’s going take a significant amount of bullish momentum to finally break above that level, and I don’t consider it broken until we break above the 0.75 level on a daily close. Until then, I think that short-term traders will continue to push and try to break out to the upside, but if we were to turn around and break below the 0.7450 level, it’s likely that the Australian dollar will rollover and go looking towards the 0.74 level.
The Australian dollar is highly levered to the Asian economy, which of course is highly levered to the trade wars are going on right now. So far, they haven’t been overly destructive, but one has to question how long it’s going take for the market to freak out over these headlines? I think we will continue to see a lot of choppy and violent trading in the Australian dollar, but I would be much more confident longer-term if we can finally clear the 0.75 level. If we don’t, we could drop as far as 0.7350 and not change much in the overall attitude of this market. Pay attention to gold, it has its usual influence as well, just as the Chinese stock markets will to a lesser extent.