Bitcoin has broken down below the bottom of a descending triangle during the trading session on Thursday, a very negative sign indeed. By breaking down below this area, it measures for a move down to the $13,500 level underneath. I believe that it’s going to continue to show negative pressure, and that the $17,000 level is now the next resistance barrier. Ultimately, this is a market that looks likely to continue to favor the downside, as the bubble is getting out of hand.
BTC/USD daily chart, December 22, 2017
Beyond problems with the bubble, this is the wrong time of year to expect volume by retail traders, which make up a bulk of the Bitcoin market. Recently, we’ve seen a massive run-up in price, due to institutions coming into the game. However, unlike the “true believers”, institutions will cut and run as soon as there are signs of trouble. Beyond that, were starting to see credit enter the Bitcoin area, and that creates the exact problem that Bitcoin was supposed to avoid. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to lose a lot of value in the short term, perhaps a market that is able to be bought years down the road. At this point, it’s very difficult to buy Bitcoin after we have seen a rolling over time and time again. Frankly, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level could be found closer to the $9000 level, just from the last year. If you are buying Bitcoin at this point, you are asking yourself whether the bubble will continue to go forward. Because of this, Bitcoin is considered to be a very dangerous and speculative investment, and if the US dollar starts to rally in the FX markets, that could cause major issues for Bitcoin as well.
Just this week, we have seen a major South Korean Bitcoin exchange get hacked, and so much stolen that the exchange had to file for emergency bankruptcy. At this point, I think Bitcoin is becoming very dangerous. In the short term, we could get a move to the €13,500 level, and then a slight bounce. I would not be looking to buy Bitcoin until we break well above the $17,000 level, and on a daily chart.