The US dollar has been very noisy against the Japanese yen, breaking down towards the ¥109.50 level, an area that of course attract some attention, before bouncing towards the ¥110 level. We have rolled over since then, but only slightly so. I feel that the markets are probably in more or less a holding pattern, as we await to see what the Chinese are going to do in retaliation to the tariffs. At this point, although very negative as far as risk appetite is concerned, the markets have refrained from completely falling apart, which is a good sign. Market participants will continue to pay attention to rhetoric between the Chinese and the Americans, so it will be very difficult to hang onto a position for longer-term move. Currently, it looks as if we will probably sell short-term rallies, but quite frankly we need some type of stability coming out of the geopolitical world to hang onto gains.
The ¥109 level underneath is the “floor” in the market from what I see right now, so we could go as low as that level without breaking the attempt at an uptrend. If we do break down below there, the market goes looking towards a significant support level at the ¥107.50 handle.
Otherwise, if we can turn around and recapture the ¥110.50 level, then I think the market could continue its march towards ¥111, and then the ¥112.50 level. This of course would coincide with some type of cooling down of trade tensions.