Monday, February 19, 2018
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AUD/USD defends 0.80 in Asia, but is short-term top in place?
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  • Bearish pinbar on the daily chart.
  • Bearish follow-through to confirm a short-term top.
  • But, AUD/USD finds bids near 0.80.
  • Focus on US GDP.

US President Donald Trump’s strong dollar comment took a wind out of USD bears, leading to a sharp drop in the AUD/USD to 0.80114.

The resulting ‘bearish pinbar” candle on the daily chart could be a sign of a tired bull. A bearish follow-through today would indicate the rally from the December low of 0.7501 has topped out. Also, the spot also needs to close below the accelerated trendline (drawn from December low and Jan. 10 low).

As of now, the pair seems to have regained poise. Currently, it is trading at 0.8035 levels; having found bids at 0.8004 earlier today.

That said, the pair may fall back below 0.80 and possibly beneath the accelerated trendline if the US Q4 beats estimates and the details show strong consumer spending.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

A break above 0.8083 (Wed’s high) would expose 0.8119 (previous day’s high). A daily close above 0.8119 is needed for a sustained move 0.8163 (May 2015 high) – 0.82 (zero levels). On the other hand, breach of support at 0.8004 (session low) could yield a pullback to 0.7973 (23.6% Fib R of Dec. low – Jan. 25 high) and 0.7956 (Jan. 23 low).

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