- The Aussie is in neutral, considering its options ahead of European markets.
- ‘good, but not good enough’ macro data is strangling the RBA’s options.
The AUD/USD is drifting in Asia after reaching a session high of 0.7885 and currently trading back to the 0.7875 level. The pair has been lounging towards the inside of a 20-pip range since the end of Wednesday’s London-New York overlap, and ongoing market woes about the growing possibility of a global trade war spurred on by Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drag on sentiment.
Today saw the Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations come in at 3.7% (prev. 3.6%) and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Bulletin which confirmed most of what markets have already known: the Australian economy is growing, but not enough, and the RBA is playing wait-and-see for signs of stronger inflation before that can begin lifting rates. The RBA’s Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle, will be speaking about risk and return in a low-interest rate environment at the Financial Risk Day event hosted by the Centre for Financial Risk in Sydney, but it is unlikely that Debelle will be addressing monetary policy directly during the event. Debelle is expected to begin speaking at 22:45 GMT. With no other data on the week’s docket for the AUD/USD, market sentiment can be expected to continue leading the pair by the nose as we finish out the week.
Descending highs are capping off bullish momentum in the pair on Daily candles, and the H4 charts have priced in a recent failure to recapture the 0.7900 level. Support is currently coming from the last two swing lows, at 0.7845 and 0.7775 respectively, with resistance nearby at 0.7895 and the last swing high of 0.7916.