Thursday, March 22, 2018
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AUD/USD revisits 100-day MA hurdle, is it a bull trap?
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  • USD weakened across the board, lifting AUD/USD to 100-day MA hurdle.
  • Trade wars could be a net negative for the Aussie dollar, hence uptick in AUD/USD could be a bull trap.

Having recovered from the two-month low of 0.7712 in the North American session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the 100-day moving average (MA) resistance of 0.7773 in Asia as the greenback found no love, possibly due to the overnight decline in the treasury yields.

The yield on the 10-year treasury note fell from 2.87 percent to 2.79 percent yesterday, courtesy of slightly dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell before his Senate appearance and due to a sharp decline in US stocks due to growing concerns of a global trade war.

Wild ride

The Aussie dollar fell from 0.7764 to 0.7715 in a knee-jerk reaction to Trump’s tariff plan. It is feared that the move could yield retaliatory action from China and other trading partners, leading to a global trade war.

Still, the AUD/USD recovered from 0.7715 and rose to 0.7773. Experts believe trade war is a net negative for the Australian economy and hence the uptick seen in Asia could be a bull trap. As of writing, the currency pair is trading at 0.7765.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

A break above 0.7773 (50-day MA) would expose resistance at 0.7790 (Feb. 22 low) and 0.7820 (10-day MA). That said, The bearish daily relative strength index (RSI) and the downward sloping (bearish biased) 5-day MA and 10-day MA indicate upticks will likely be short-lived.

On the downside, a break below 0.7753 (Asian session low) could yield a re-test of the previous day’s low of 0.7712. A daily close below the same would expose support at 0.7501 (December low).

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