- EUR/USD hit a 5-week low of 1.2218 on Thursday.
- EUR put bias strengthens, risk reversals indicate.
The EUR/USD pair fell during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards a major uptrend line on the daily charts. Because of this, I think we might have a nice longer-term buying opportunity trying to present itself, and after today’s jobs number, it’s likely that we will see some type of clarity.
The Euro fell significantly during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the uptrend line. The uptrend line goes back several months, and I think it is very important, and will more than likely try to be respected. I think that the attitude of the market is going to be very choppy and difficult, but once we get through the jobs number today, we could get some clarity as to where we go next. I suspect we bounce, based upon my longer-term work, but I also recognize that the jobs number will cause a significant amount of volatility. If we can break above the 1.23 level, I would consider that confirmation that the trendline has held. Otherwise, if we break down below the 1.22 level, then I think we go to the 1.21 level where I expect to see massive support as well.
Market participants will more than likely be very skittish and sensitive to the jobs number, but if we do get the rally that I anticipate, we could be looking at a move towards the 1.25 level over the longer term. Anticipate a lot of choppiness on the way up, but I would be willing to get very aggressive once we have that confirmation. The market has calm down significantly as the Americans have taken over, and I think that until we get the jobs number, is very unlikely to move drastically, so patients of course will be needed.