- The Euro reclaims the 1.2300 handle against the USD following Monday’s risk flight, but further upside remains tightly contested.
- EU Markit PMIs could inspire traders in either direction early in the European session.
The EUR/USD is recovering from Monday’s selloff in the US session where it hit a bottom at 1.2282, and the pair is currently trading back above the 1.2300 handle ahead of the European markets.
Monday was a thin affair volume-wise with the European markets dark for the extended Easter Monday holiday, and the US session responded to China’s retaliatory tariffs with a risk flight that took the top off of most risk assets including the EUR/USD. Markets have recovered and the European session will be opening into NFP week with a range of Markit PMIs to look forward to.
Europe sees an array of macro data early in Tuesday’s action, kicking off with German Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT, and the month-on-month figure is expected at 0.8 percent, a noted upswing from the previous period’s -0.7 percent contraction. After that is Markit Manufacturing PMIs for Spain, Italy, France, and Germany from 07:15 GMT to 07:55 GMT, with the Eurozone Markit PMI dropping at 08:00 GMT, which is expected at 56.6 for March, an identical reading to February’s report.
On the US side the FOMC’s members Kashkari and Brainard will be speaking at separate events, with Kashkari speaking at 13:30 GMT and Brainard at 20:30, where traders will be hoping for some talk of monetary policy to gauge how hawkish members of the Fed are.
EUR/USD Levels to consider
The EUR/USD is struggling to find bullish momentum, “a break above 1.2477 (high Mar.27) would target 1.2537 (high Jan.25) en route to 1.2557 (2018 high Feb.16). On the other hand, immediate contention emerges at 1.2282 (low Mar.29) followed by 1.2241 (low Mar.21) and finally 1.2206 (low Feb.9).”