- The Euro can’t seem to find the drive it needs to break 1.2400, continues to lapse back into range.
- EU CPI figures today could drive the Euro… in either direction.
The EUR/USD is holding within Tuesday’s range, trading steady near 1.2375 after losing the 1.2400 once again.
The Euro whipped yesterday, reaching a peak of 1.2413, but the move couldn’t sustain itself and the EUR/USD fell back into 1.2336 before recovering heading into Wednesday’s action, led less by Euro bullishness and more by the USD’s brief walkback as equities rallied higher in the US session.
Bearish sentiment increasing through the EZ
The economic slowdown that many feared for the beginning of 2018 is coming home to roost in a big way for the Eurozone, and confidence is deteriorating in the European theater at a quickened pace, noted by yesterday’s German ZEW results that fell to -8.2 in April, down from the previous reading of 17.2, turning negative within a two month span. As FXStreet’s own Mario Blascak noted yesterday, “for the investors’ sentiment indicator, it took just two months to swing from positive to negative reading last recorded in July 2016 when the sentiment was hammered by post-Brexit referendum uncertainty.The reasons behind the downturn in investors sentiment are stemming from both geopolitics and the international trade after the US-led push against both China and Syria.”
Sentiment in the Eurozone on a free fall
The Euro heads into Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index reading on a cautious note thanks to continued geopolitical tensions; final CPI figures for the wider Eurozone area drop today at 09:00 GMT, and March’s year-on-year CPI and CPI Core figures are expected at 1.4 and 1.0 percent respectively, and although these are final figures (and thus unlikely to deviate too much from expectations), a surprise swing to the downside is the last thing the EUR/USD needs right now, and could send the pair tumbling back to the end end of the congestion that has plagued the EUR/USD since first bottoming in February of this year.
EUR/USD Levels to watch
The EUR/USD has been subbornly trapped in a sideways range for most of 2018, and as FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted, “technically, failure to sustain gains beyond 1.2400 is quite discouraging for bulls, but the pair continues trading inside a familiar range, and the long-term symmetrical triangle that comes from mid-February. Halfway between the extremes of the figure, the 4 hours chart shows that the price settled around a directionless 20 SMA, while longer moving averages are also flat a few pips below the current level, reflecting the lack of a certain trend. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have retreated sharply before bouncing modestly around neutral territory, indicating that, while the dollar is getting some attention today, remains far from strong. Below the 1.2300 region, chances turn to the downside for the short term, while a break beyond 1.2430 is now required to consider further gains ahead.”
Support levels: 1.2335 1.2295 1.2250
Resistance levels: 1.2390 1.2435 1.2480