- EUR/USD hanging on in Asia following yesterday’s decline, but selling pressure remains strong.
- German trade data at 07:00 GMT.
- UK’s Super Thursday interest event promises market volatility.
EUR/USD has bounced following yesterday’s decline from 1.2373, and is trudging upwards into 1.2280 during Tokyo. The pair is down 2% from last week’s close, and currently trading into two-week lows.
Germany has Trade Balance and Current Account data due today at 07:00 GMT, with German Bundesbank President Jans Weidmann slated to give a speech titled “Monetary Policy in the European Context” at the Monetary and Economic Policies conference in Frankfurt. Weidmann will be taking the podium at 08:45.
The real risk to EUR/USD will be knock-on risk appetite following the UK’s ‘Super Thursday’ triple-bill of the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision, minutes from the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, and the quarterly inflation report, all at 12:00 GMT. With equities trading softer today and commodities off their recent recoveries, it won’t take much of a push to throw risk aversion back into the mix, sending traders piling into safe havens and riskier assets down the charts once again.
Sellers are still very much in control, with the pair closing lower three of the last four trading days. That being said, if buyers are able to find a bottom here, then EUR/USD could see a pullback to the 38.2 Fibo level at 1.2351, but first they’ll have to break through resistance at 1.2330 before any bullish corrections can get underway.
Today’s pivot points: