Wednesday, April 25, 2018
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EUR/USD still cautious in risk-averse environment, trying to slow decline
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  • EUR/USD off recent highs but trying to dig in.
  • EU GDP for 4th qtr 2017 on the horizon.

EUR/USD is heading into Friday European markets having middled through a back-and-forth session on Thursday, and the Euro has dug in its heels against the US Dollar following several days of declines; the pair is currently consolidating around 1.2255 in Tokyo trading.

The Euro has closed down against the US Dollar three of the last four trading days, with volatility increasing; recent risk aversion has sent risk assets lower, the Euro being no exception. Options markets have been increasingly betting on a Greenback increase, and economic activity within the US has been growing at a decent clip, sending inflation fear-based shockwaves through equities markets that have seen the major equity indexes tumble from recent record highs.

The Euro has slim pickings for the final day of trading this week, but the pair can expect some mild knock-on volatility when the UK releases Manufacturing Production figures at 09:30 GMT today, but their effect will be limited. The big news laying over the horizon for the Euro will be 4th quarter GDP figures for Germany, Italy, Portugal, and the broad European Union. Euro bulls will be hoping for a pick-up-and-run effect from GDP numbers, though final releases may disappoint as economic growth within Europe has lagged recently.

EUR/USD Technicals

The pair looks set to close lower this week, ending a seven-week run of the Euro finishing Friday higher against the Greenback through the week. EUR/USD is currently edging into a support zone from 1.2215 to 1.2180, while a pullback or reversal of the recent bearish action will face resistance at 1.2360. Long-term, the Euro has had a fantastic run against the US Dollar, ostensibly gaining against the US currency with little interruption since December of 2016. The 34 EMA is still acting as support at 1.2206, and the 200-day SMA is still decidedly bullish, sloping upward and currently sitting at 1.1706.

Today’s pivot points:
R2: 1.2334
R1: 1.2290
PP: 1.2251
S1: 1.2207
S2: 1.2168

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