Wednesday, April 25, 2018
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EUR/USD straining for a bullish continuation, 1.2500 still within grasp
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  • EUR/USD down but definitely not out.
  • ECB meeting with Brexit negotiator today at 08:00 GMT.
  • RBNZ OCR key rate decision could introduce some volatility back into the mix.

EUR/USD has weakened in recent days, but buyers are fighting hard to make sure the pair doesn’t spend much time below 1.2350. After the recent bout of risk aversion in the markets, Euro bulls will be looking to get the trend moving back into new territory, but they’ll have to close the gap to 1.2515 first.

The ECB will be holding their Non-Monetary Policy Meeting today at 08:00 GMT in Frankfurt, where the governing council of the European Central Bank will be talking with Michel Barnier, the Chief Brexit Negotiator for the UK’s Article 50 withdrawal from the EU.

Later on today the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will making their overnight cash rate decision at 20:00; most market forecasts have given up on hopes of a rate increase this year, with especially gloomy forecasts from the RBNZ not expecting a rate rise until 2020. As Mario Blascak notes, “While the NZ economy seems to go full steam ahead with the unemployment rate falling, the main policy target, the inflation rate remains stubbornly low. In January Statistics New Zealand said the consumer price index decelerated to 1.6% y/y with market analysts now seeing very little chance of monetary policy tightening on less than a year time from now. Economists at all of the four major Australian and New Zealand banks now expect the OCR to remain unchanged until at least early 2019. The forecasts from RBNZ are even more conservative anticipating the first policy rate move in 2020.”

EUR/USD Technicals

The Tokyo session gave EUR/USD time to think, with price ranging between 1.2377 and 1.2392, with intraday swing support/resistance at 1.2370 and 1.2402. H4 charts show bullish potential still in play, with price battling between the recent highs near 1.2520 and the lows at 1.2340. Daily charts are still very bullish, with price trading comfortably above the 34 EMA and 200-day SMA.

Today’s pivot points:
R2: 1.2494
R1: 1.2435
PP: 1.2375
S1: 1.2316
S2: 1.2255

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