- The GBP continues to lose ground against the USD despite the upbeat economic landscape.
- US NFP promises to introduce some volatility to markets to wrap up the week.
The GBP/USD is middling through the Asia session following Thursday’s decline, and the GBP is trying to hang onto the 1.3800 handle heading into the London markets.
The Sterling continues to be dragged down by Brexit concerns despite upbeat economic data for the UK and a positive outlook from the Bank of England (BoE), which is widely expected to begin lifting interest rates soon, with many anticipating the first in a series of small rate increases to begin in May with a bump to 0.75 percent. The regulatory landscape that is waiting to meet UK businesses when Brexit begins to take effect next March is no clearer today than it was a year ago with political leaders on both sides of the English Channel continuing to squabble about whose rules need precedent in a UK-EU trade agreement.
Plenty of volatility is still to be expected for Friday’s session as the USD undergoes its once-a-month Non-Farm Payrolls ritual. Median forecasts are calling for a 200k printing, identical to the previous period. With the Federal Reserve cautioning about a potential slowing of job creation in the first quarter of 2018 as the economy begins to approach full employment, a downside miss to the figures may have limited downside risk.
Before NFP Friday, the UK will be seeing Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers at 09:30 GMT. Market analysts expect Manufacturing Production for the month of January to decline slightly, from the previous 0.3% to 0.2%, while forecasts of Industrial Production for the same period anticipate a 1.5% reading versus the previous -1.3%.
The Sterling continues to waffle against the Greenback, with Thursday’s selloff hacking away at much of March’s gains and the GBP/USD continuing to thrash around the 34 EMA as markets remain undecided about the GBP’s direction. H4 candles have the pair pricing in a lower high this week, and a break through support could see the Sterling trading at a two-month low against the Dollar. Intraday support is coming from 1.3780 and 1.3725, with resistance priced in from 1.3930 to 1.3960.