Thursday, March 22, 2018
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Dollar-Yen (112.25) has been the big mover yesterday, falling on news of BOJ reducing it’s purchase of long-tenor (10-25 year) bonds. This increases the chances of a fall to 110 over the next couple of weeks.

An even bigger mover has been the Euro-Yen (134.07), which has fallen sharply from levels near 136.65 a few days ago, arresting a rise that could have otherwise targeted 138+. Now the Cross can dip towards 133.60in the near term, which is a medium term channel Support on the weekly candles. Note that a break below 133 (not happening immediately, but if it happens at all) could be a big game changer for all markets.

This brings us to the Euro (1.1942) which is holding above the 21-day MA Support at 1.1902. It has potential to start moving up again, either from current levels or from deeper down near 1.1865. If so, the upside targets would be 1.2150-2250.

The Pound (1.3533) is marking time just above immediate Support at 1.3500 and may continue to trade sideways for a few more days within the overall uptrend that has Support in the 1.34-33 region.

We had hinted at a pause in the Aussie (0.7819) between 0.7800-60, and it has dipped within that. Further dip towards 0.7750 is possible, especially due to the new strength in the Yen.

It will be interesting to see whether the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY = 6.5288) weakens further due to Yen strength or recoups some of its losses if the Dollar weakens again.

Dollar-Rupee (63.70) looks a little Overbought in the near term and may have intra-week Resistance in the 63.80-64.00 region.

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