Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Banner Top
Market Morning Briefing: Euro Has Seen A Test Of Support Near 1.2275
Banner Content

STOCKS

Dow (24893.35, -0.08%) moved up to test almost levels near 25500. Near term is likely to see some ranged-trade in the 25500-24000 region. A break above 25500 if seen over today and tomorrow could take the index higher towards 26000.

Dax (12590.43, +1.60%) moved up from 12200 but a rise above 12700 is needed to take the index to higher levels in the near term. While below immediate resistance near 12700, there could be another chance of a fall back towards 12400-12300.

Nikkei (21700.94, +0.26%) may move up towards 22600 while important support near 21000 holds in the coming sessions. Near term looks ranged to bullish while above 21000.

Shanghai (3282.74, -0.80%) broke below the channel support seen on the 3-day candles. If the index comes back above 3300, then it could move up towards 3450 in the near term; else a fall towards 3250 or lower looks likely while below 3300.

Nifty (10476.70, -0.21%) and Sensex (34082.71, -0.33%) came off in the second half of the session yesterday to close at lower levels. Weakness in the indices may not have ended yet but while it remains in a pause mode just now, we may look for a re-test of 10380 and 33750 levels again. Watch price action near mentioned support levels.

COMMODITIES

Brent (65.36) and WTI (61.62) are down sharply. Brent has broken below immediate support level while WTI is testing one just at current level. A bounce if not seen immediately could lead to further fall in the crude prices to 64 and 60 respectively.

Gold (1313.64) has come off below 1320 and may now be headed towards 1300 in the next couple of sessions. 1280-1300 is an important near term support region which is likely to hold and produce a bounce back in the medium term. View is bearish for the coming sessions.

Copper (3.1180) broke sharply on the downside indicating more of upcoming bearishness in the price. The fall is likely to continue and price could move down towards important long term support near 3.05. That if holds could thereafter produce a bounce back to higher levels in the longer run.

FOREX

As per expectation, Dollar Index (90.244) has moved past 90 and has been trading in the 90.2-90.4 range. There should be some resistance just below 91 as seen on the daily candles and weekly line charts. A test of 91 could however be postponed to next week.

Euro (1.2278) has seen a test of support near 1.2275 (on the weekly candles) earlier than expected. It is however still to be seen if this acts as a decent support or not. There is lower support near 1.22 on the 3 day line chart and near 1.215-1.22 on the daily candles, which could prove to be strong support levels leading to a bounce.

Dollar-Yen (109.34) seems to be struggling to move up beyond 109.5 as 21-day and 13-day moving average lines on the daily line chart continue providing some resistance. On the weekly line chart, it might again come down to test support near 108.5, which is an important level. Near term for Dollar Yen looks bearish for now and further directional clarity might come about in the next few days.

Euro Yen (134.25) dropped to levels near 133.87 but is again trading above 134, indicating that support near 134 on the daily, 3 day and weekly candles might hold for some more time. However, if Euro goes down towards 1.22 without Dollar Yen breaking below 108.5, Euro Yen could break this support at 134.

Pound (1.3894) has been on a downtrend for the last 5 days and as mentioned yesterday, could test support near 1.36-1.37 on the daily candles in a week’s time.

Dollar Rupee (64.28) is likely to remain ranged within 64.30-64.00 region this week. Only on a break above 64.30, we may consider a re-test of 64.40/45 on the upside.

INTEREST RATES

US 10 Year Yield (2.7865), US 30 year Yield (3.0592), US 5 year yield (2.5227), US 2 year yield (2.0930) have again moved up after the dramatic fall yesterday. However we might see all of them stay below 2.85, 3.15, 2.6 and 2.2 respectively as there are long term resistances near those levels. The global equity selloff in favour of safer debt is still underway and we might have to wait and watch till we are certain of a narrower range in which US yields could move for the next few days. The volatility phase might just be ending for now. The next rate hike is supposed to be in March when the volatility could again return.

Japan 10 year yield (0.081) continues its oscillation between the broad 0.07 and 0.088 level which might continue for now.

Banner Content

0 Comments

Leave a Comment