Saturday, April 21, 2018
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Pound Seems To Have Found Some Temporary Support

FOREX

The Dollar index (90.077) saw a high of 90.28 yesterday thereby breaching resistance near 90.10 in the downward channel on daily candles. It is currently trading slightly lower near 90.10 (near the resistance level). It might now move towards higher resistance (seen on weekly line chart and 3 day candles) near 91.

Euro (1.2281) saw a low of 1.2254 yesterday, thereby testing support on 3 day candles. On the daily candles, there is still some scope for a down move towards lower support near 1.2225. A break of the same would imply medium term bearishness.

We had predicted yesterday that Dollar Yen (106.47) might be paused in its down move by the 13 days moving average line on the daily line chart ; however, the Dollar Yen hasn’t only paused, but has bounced from there back towards resistance on daily candles. It could again test this resistance near 106.9 in the next 1-2 sessions, after which a dip could be expected.

Euro Yen (130.76) contrary to expectation hasn’t continued its dip towards support near 129.5-129.0 on daily candles due to the Yen’s sudden strength yesterday. However, there is immediate resistance on daily candles now at 131 which should lead to a dip. There is resistance on Dollar Yen near 106.9 too (as mentioned above) and scope for Euro to move lower to 1.2225, which should both combine to make Euro Yen possibly stay below 131.

Pound (1.4088) seems to have found some temporary support (provided by the 21 days moving average on the daily line chart) but is still likely to move down in the short term towards support near 1.395-1.390 (seen on daily candles, 3 day candles, 3 day line chart).

Dollar Rupee (65.015) – Can dip to 64.90-85.

INTEREST RATES

US long term yields as per our expectation yesterday have found some support after the continuous dip for the last few days. However, we might still see a slow and gradual decline in yields through Apr-May.

US 10 Yr Yield (2.7771%), 30 Yr (3.0142%), 5 Yr (2.5974%), 2 Yr (2.274%) :

The 10 Year yield seems to have indeed found support near 2.75% on the medium term chart (we had predicted yesterday that the support might be lower near 2.7%). It might now rise back towards 2.8% over the next 2-3 sessions.

The 30 yr yield as per expectation has seen a bounce from levels near 2.97% (seen as support in the downward channel on short term chart). It might now rise towards resistance near 3.05% in the channel and dip from there.

COMMODITIES

Brent (67.91) as mentioned yesterday, is looking bearish in the near term and could come down towards 66 in the next 1-2 weeks (seen as support on weekly and 3 day candles).

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