Dollar index (94.347), as we expected, did test support on daily candles yesterday (near 93.86) and then rose back to a high of 94.50, thereby testing resistance trendline. It could see a slight downmove towards 94.10-94.20 in today’s session and then again rise towards 94.6 tomorrow. In case it breaks support near 94.10, the downmove could extend upto 93.6, which should then produce a bounce. 95 could be tested sometime in the 1st half of June. The upside in the next 2 weeks might be capped by 95.00-95.65.
Euro (1.1627), exactly as we had expected, tested a high near 1.173 yesterday and then fell from there to 1.161. In today’s session, it could rise to test resistance near 1.166 on daily candles and then again dip from there towards 1.16. If it breaches resistance, then the upmove could extend till 1.174, but ultimately it should again move down. Euro’s downside target for the next couple of weeks is 1.155-1.145.
Dollar Yen (109.01), contrary to our expectation, did not continue its rise towards 110.5 and has instead dipped towards 109 once again. While above 109, it could again see a rise towards resistance on weekly candles near 111.5-112.0. If it breaks 109, it could still get some support near 108 (21 Weeks MA). A break of 108 could however imply the onset of medium term bearishness.
Euro Yen (126.77): Our expectation of ranging between 129.5-128.0 for this week did not work out as the Euro yen broke support near 128-127 on weekly line chart. It could now downtrend quickly towards 125 (support on weekly candles) by next week.
Pound (1.3317): Pound is staying within the channel on daily candles. As mentioned yesterday, the upside might be capped by 1.335 and levels near 1.32 could be tested later in the week.
WTI (66.88) is trading above near term support at 65.50 and while that holds, there could be chances of a bounce back to levels above 67.50. A break below 65.50 is seen could take the price lower towards 63.75 in the coming weeks.
Decent support in the 73.50-73.70 zone is visible on the Brent (75.71) which may hold for the coming sessions producing a bounce towards 77 soon. Only on a break below 73.50 would we focus on lower levels.
The Brent-WTI spread has shot up to 8.75, breaking the trend resistance of 7.75 but could pause near 9.00-9.30 levels before coming off towards 7.75 again in the coming sessions. This could indicate a near term rise in the crude prices.
The 21-day Ma on the Gold (1298.21) daily line chart seems to have acted as a decent resistance pushing off the Gold price to levels below 1300 again. There is scope of falling towards 1280-1270 on the downside in the medium term. But, also watch interim support near 1290.
Copper (3.0809) has been moving sideways without any major movement just now. It could continue to see range-trade within 3.02-3.15 region for the coming sessions. Unless we see a clear break on either side, it would be difficult to project further direction. Failure to sustain above 3.02, could take it down to 2.95 in the medium term.